SynApps The Open Source and Gadget blog

Networkworld.com commented on Radicati's hosted eMail study with an article titled "Hosted e-mail seats will grow 40% by 2012...". Hosted eMail accounts grew from 1bn in 2006 to 1.6bn in 2008 and will be at 2.2bn in 2012 according to Radicati.

Biggest drivers for this growth are small and medium businesses. From the article: "Smaller businesses are likely to go the hosted route, but large enterprises may find that hosted e-mail is a fit for regional offices, Radicati says.". So hosted eMail is growing to become business-class eMail - with rich mobility and groupware features to support businesses.

At the same time the on-premise eMail and Groupware market "grows" a mere 4% with about 400mn accounts these days. Microsoft dominates this market with Exchange (50%), followed by IBM's Notes/Domino (40%) and all the rest at 10%. 

But now listen to Microsoft: "In five years, 50 percent of our Exchange mailboxes will be Exchange Online," said Capossela...". If this holds true for the whole on-premises software market, throw another 200-300mn mailboxes into the hosted eMail bucket.

Here is what's going on: eMail and Groupware are the next software category to be replaced by SaaS/Cloud services. Few people run their own Web servers. Few will run their Messaging and Groupware servers in the future.

The market is shifting and Service Providers (Internet companies, Hosters, Telcos, Carriers) and Software makers need to adjust to this fact. Google is investing hundreds of millions into this space, they even create their own browser to make their Apps work, Microsoft is building data centers for a billion or more to push out hosted Exchange, Yahoo buys Zimbra for $350mn, Cisco buys PostPath for $215mn. 

We are in the middle of all this and probaly the only remaining, independend provider of a "built for SaaS" Open Source Messaging and Groupware application, with partners like 1&1 and Network Solutions offering services based on our product. Even though we are adding 8mn users with the help of these wonderful partners this year it almost seems a small number given this tramendous growth of the overall market. 

Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, Cisco are playing it big. "But I think it is a totally wide-open space at the moment..." Radicati says.